UFC 104 Predictions

Lyoto Machida says, "I cannot be a champion unless I am able to defend my title." And I agree. But before we all watch the UFC 104 live stream and witness if Machida can defend his light heavyweight title, let me share with you now some of my predictions.

Lyoto Machida versus Mauricio Rua – Light Heavyweight Championship

Even while acknowledging his experience and white-hot hostility in the octagon, it’s still really frickin’ hard to picture Rua beating Machida. Yes, Mauricio has brought some much-needed discipline to his game and his cardio seems to have improved after some poor showings, but the odds remain decidedly stacked against him.

The very things that give Rua a chance – his ultra-aggressive punching, kicking and shooting – are exactly the style that Machida has been able to exploit with canny movement and laser-guided strikes. For Rua to work the ground game, he’s got to take Lyoto down and keep him there, and we all know how hard that has proven to be. And unlike Rua, there’s no question of which Machida we’ll see in the octagon – this guy has been unwaveringly deadly each time he’s faced an opponent.

Look for Machida to fight the way he’s always fought – with extreme intelligence and elusiveness. His ability to keep opponents off balance will earn him yet another victory as he stuns the crowd and submits Rua in the second round.

The Verdict: Machida wins by TKO in round 2

World Buzz: UFC 104

Cain Velasquez vs Ben Rothwell

Cain Velasquez is an impressive dude, but he’s raw and inexperienced. In many ways, he’s in the same spot as Shane Carwin, whom he was scheduled to fight prior to some UFC rescheduling. Now, Velasquez is gonna have to go through “Big” Ben Rothwell to get the title shot he’s been craving. In my mind, this is a bad match up for Velasquez and a great opportunity for Rothwell, who’s being painted as an underdog but could easily pull out a win – this guy’s got granite fists, a rock-hard chin and some serious submission skills, not to mentions years in the cage against a varied and impressive list of opponents.

Look for Rothwell to finish Velasquez in the second round.

The Verdict: Rothwell wins by KO in round 2

UFC 104: Crucial Bouts

Josh Neer vs. Gleison Tibau

This is sure to be a tough one for both competitors, who are each coming off tough decision losses. Tibau needs to control Neer, who’s proven to be a monster both on the feet and when he’s fighting from the top. Add to this Neer’s uncanny toughness and a coolie-like work ethic and you’ve got a man who’s going to be particularly hard to beat.

The Verdict: Neer wins by decision

Yoshiyuki Yoshida vs. Anthony Johnson

This bout’s about technical judo against aggressive and often wild striking. The puny Yoshida will have his hands full with a fighter who could easily be the biggest in his weight class. It’s a safe guess to say that Johnson will use his size, speed and striking advantages to tear Yoshida apart from a distance.

The Verdict: Johnson wins by KO in round 1

Spencer Fisher versus Joe Stevenson

Two talented and longtime lightweight contenders clash in the first bout of the main card, with Fisher’s striking prowess going up against Stevenson’s tenacity and aggression when fighting from the top.

The Verdict: Stevenson wins by unanimous decision

Related: UFC 104 is here